Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight has done some interesting statistical analysis indicating that the April 15th tax day "Tea Parties" may have been more about (small "L") libertarian backlash than a broader Republican based movement.
Nate draws the connection between per capita contributions to libertarian Republican Presidential candidate Ron Paul and attendance at Tea Party events. Campaign contributions are a strong indicator of not only support, but of enthusiasm.
To account for uneven attendance reporting, Nate measured per capita attendance by region dividing the US into 11 regions.
The result seems fairly clear:
What we seem to have is an audience that was about
two parts Ron Paul/libertarian conservative (with its strength out West
and in New Hampshire) and one part Sarah Palin/red-meat conservative
(with its strength in rural areas, particularly in the South). This is
perhaps not an accident, since Paul and Palin are just about the only
Republicans to have generated some real grassroots enthusiasm over the
past few years.
What's the significance? That Obama probably doesn't have to worry about this movement... yet. The Republicans would have a hard time capitalizing on this small segment of the population other than within their own primary fights. In fact that may cause them more problems in general elections as the base pulls the party further and further to the right.
With all the attention to these protests how do Americans really feel about the amount of taxes they pay? A Gallup poll released just days before the tax day protests found more people felt the amount of taxes they pay are fair than at any time since 1956.
